Lets look at the outcome criteria (in the section 'successes and failures) Latchem et al. use. Thy include
"Dual-mode universities offering the same courses and degrees on- and off-campus, may in this regard have an edge over the open universities with their distinctive curricula and degrees. Holding the same degrees as their on-campus counterparts, and not declaring their mode of study, graduates from the Malaysian dual-mode universities can still gain entry into government service and many professions." (Latchem et al.)
"There have been notable achievements in access and equity. Some 70% of Sukhotai Thammathirat Open University), students reside outside the Bangkok metropolitan area (Teswanitch, 1994) and the China RTVUs have significantly increased higher education participation in the remote and minority nationality regions (Sun & Li. 1997- Ding, 1998). The average undergraduate pass rate is about 80% and the on-time graduation rate about 70% (Sung, 1997; Ding, 1998). RTVU graduates have improved their capabilities and career prospects, are well regarded by employers and in some cases, proceed to postgraduate study (Huang & Zhao, 1990; Ding. 1998)." (Latchem et al.)
"In Japan the 1997 University of the Air second semester enrollment was 66.730, of whom over 55% of were female (The University of the Air, 1997). The UAJ's highest achievers are 35-44 year-old female homemakers (Takahashi. 1997) and over 60% of the 10.495 1989-1997 Bachelor of Liberal Arts graduates were female. The UAJ also attracts a higher percentage of students of 60 years and over than any other open university in the world (Iwanaga. 1994). In a country where conventional university entrance is closed to adults. the University of the Air provides a unique educational opportunity for adult learners to improve their knowledge. qualifications and career prospects, re-orientate themselves intellectually, or simply enrich their lives (Takahashi & Iwanaga, 1998)." (Latchem et al.)
"As a benchmark, the average degree completion rate at the UK Open University is 48.8%. By contrast, over 95% of the 1984-1990 Universitas Terbuka enrollees either withdrew or did not continuously maintain their studies, the average completion rate for Indira Gandhi National Open University diploma programs is 27.5% and for Sukhotai Thammathirat Open University degree programs, 17% (Belawati. 1998). Dropout rates of 50% have been experienced at the Taiwan National Open University (Liu, 1995) and 90% by the Korea National Open University (Park, 1995)." (Latchem et al.)
"Institut Teknologi MARA and Universiti Sains Malaysia report that while the dropout rates are higher for distance education students than for on-campus students in the first semester of their studies, pass rates thereon are 75-80% for both categories of student." (Latchem et al.)
Drop out rates Completion rate Open university UK <50.2 48.8% Universiti Terbuka (UT Indonesia) 95% <5% IGNOU (India) <72.5% 27.5% STOU (Thailand) <83% 17% OU (Taiwan) 50% 50% KNOU (Korea) 90% <10% MARA (Malaysia) ?? 75-80% (pass rate) It is obvious that there must be a great difference in cost-effectiveness assessment depending on the choice of effectiveness indicator: number of students or number of graduates. While for institutions in industrialized countries it has been argued that their students do not primarily look for a degree (many have already one) in developed countries they definitively look for a degree. (The alternative measure often used as a fairer proxy to measure performance of distance teaching universities is 'equivalent degrees': you add up the credit points successfully completed courses and divide them by the required credit points for a degree. Alas, such measures are not available in developing countries.)
"Such low persistence rates are attributable to a variety of factors: greater variability in entry ability, the demands of off-campus study, the costs of study to the students and/or poor teaching and logistics. On the first point, it is important to note that many Asian students, whether or not they, have the capacity for self-directed learning, have to opt for distance learning as a matter of necessity and not. as in western countries. as a matter of choice. On the second point, many institutions are required to be wholly or largelv self-funding and as a result, the students, many from low income groups, not only have to pay fees but in some cases, contribute a higher proportion of the teaching costs than their more privileged counterparts in conventional universities. Some institutions, for example, India's correspondence course institutes are poorly resourced and managed and provide faculty with little training or motivation for the work. As a consequence, their students frequently complain of delays in delivery and assignments returned without comment (Polu, 1997; Ramanujam,1997)." (Latchem et al.)
This echoes what we find attacked in Klees (1995)
"Distance education systems, from a political economy perspective, have thus usually been seen as giving a second-class, inferior education to those allowed into education last, namely, those who are hardest to reach and frequently the most disadvantaged. To add insult to injury, cost-recovery efforts have usually been higher in distance education systems, so disadvantaged students have ended up paying more for their education than those in conventional schools (Oliveira 1988, Nettleton 1991). Moreover, the independent study nature of distance education lets fewer students through the education pipeline. Those who do not get through are often "cooled out" from higher expectations, and society is absolved of blame for not having given them a fair chance. Indeed, more broadly, distance education systems have been seen to help maintain the stability of unfair societies by legitimating what is only a pretense of equal opportunity. More directly, especially for authoritarian regimes, stability can be enhanced because, with distance education, students do not congregate and are therefore less likely to be a political force."
Klees, S. J. (1995). The Economics of Educational Technology. In M. Carnoy (Ed.), International Encyclopedia of Economics of Education. Oxford: Pergamon.